Wisdom of the masses for 2019-20

Wisdom of the masses for 2019-20


In his 2004 book “The Wisdom of Crowds”, James Surowiecki makes an interesting case that if you want to make a correct decision then large numbers of ordinary people can provide better advice than a small number of experts.  We have been researching this concept since 2005 and find that it is a potentially useful technique - but that applying it is rather more complex than suggested by Surowiecki.

We prefer the term "the wisdom of the masses" rather than crowds because the latter does not suggest sufficient diversity.

Consumer expectations have been found to be valuable for forecasting and predicting behaviour.  This includes economic and political outcomes.

The June 2019 survey indicates that the unemployment rate is unlikely to fall. Details of the leading indicator model for the unemployment rate are included in the report.

The report provides data on willingness to spend, the proportion of adults who feel they have discretionary funds, saving priorities, expectations about the economy, global warming, drought, petrol and electricity prices and the affordability of electric vehicles.

Some of these biannual tracking measures were commenced in 2003 and others from 2005.  This period spans a range of economic and political times and so there is a varied historical context for evaluating the significance of recent data.

Additional product information

Ebook WoM19_20.pdf

Browse these categories as well: Consumer Intelligence, Forecasts of Consumer Spending and Economic Growth