Predictions of the outcome of the 2019 federal election were inaccurate. Both polls of voting intentions and betting markets failed to predict a Coalition victory.
We have explored whether the Wisdom of the Masses, the general public’s expectations about the future on several issues, can explain Wthe election outcomes between 2007 and 2019. Elections are intrinsically about the future.
Our findings are positive and this provides a new basis for predicting Australian federal election outcomes.
It also provides insights relevant to the focus of election strategies of political parties.
We will be updating our surveys and providing clients with predictions between now and the next federal election.