Forecasting: the essential skills


This book is aimed at improving forecasting skills.  This is through reviewing the performance of forecasting in several fields, illustrative case studies,and discussion of opportunities to improve accuarcy and threats to accuracy.

The reviews of forecasting accuracy include three chapters on economic forecasting, five chapters on weather and climate forecasting and a chapter on political forecasting.  The reviews identify some key factors for improving forecasting accuracy in these fields

There is a section on forecasting techniques and risk and uncertainty in forecasting including case studies.  One chapter shows how the Wisdom of the Masses can be used to forecast the unemployment rate more accrately than economists.

Published in May 2018, the book has 19 chapters and 24 case studies over 170 pages.

Now comes with Volume 2, Part 1 written in 2020, which analyses perceptions of forecasting accuracy.  Based on a survey of the Australian general public which measured perceptions of forecasting accuracy of economists, meteorologists, and climate scientists.

This is important information for both decision makers who rely on forecasts and forecasters who wish to improve their skills.

Additional product information

Ebook ForecastingSkills0518.pdf ForecastingSkillsV2P1_201020.pdf

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