Opinion polls conducted before the 2019 federal election all got it wrong by a similarly large margin. An investigation by #AMSRO (Association of Market and Social Research Organisations) concluded that:
“The most likely reason why the polls underestimated the first preference vote for the LNP and overestimated it for Labor was because the samples were unrepresentative and inadequately adjusted.
The polls were likely to have been skewed towards the more politically engaged and better educated voters with this bias not corrected.
As a result, the polls over-represented Labor voters.
Pollsters share a common difficulty in struggling to establish contact with and gain the cooperation of a representative sample of voters – irrespective of methodology. This conclusion is broadly similar to that reached by the reviews into the performance of the 2015 UK polls and the 2016 US polls”.
After this excoriating assessment, how can we more accurately predict the outcome of the next federal election, which will most likely be held between August 2021 and April 2022? This report provides alternative methods and their predictions based on April 2021 data.
I have developed a new approach based on the Wisdom of the Masses – the general public’s expectations concerning the future on issues such as the economy, climate change, and terrorism. The models based on these factors fit the outcome of the last five elections very well.
Our predictions will be updated frequently in the run-up to the next federal election.