Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that per capita consumption, based on the population aged 15+ has fallen from 13 litres of pure alcohol in 1977-78 to 9.5 litres in 2017-18.
Our analysis of the data has identified the main drivers of this decline. These are both demographic and economic factors.
Our model projects that per capita consumption will continue to decline, but that total alcohol consumption is likely to grow slowly. Projections extend to 2030.
The per capita decline in consumption may seem like a good health outcome, but it is not actually clear that we are drinking less. The demographic and economic factors may be confusing us.