Rainfall Outlook

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Rainfall over Victoria, Australia, is influenced by a range of factors - mostly natural but human activity may have some influence.  Some of the natural factors are predictable, providing a basis for predicting when Victoria's wet periods are most likely.


ENSO is a natural cycle but there are occasional extreme events.  This report identifies the driver of the extreme events and provides evidence concerning the mechanism.  With this information, we know the approximate timing of future extreme events.


Parts of Australia are in severe drought.  This is costly to the agriculture industry and the federal government is providing billions of dollars in assistance.  This drought is primarily caused by very low rainfall, but is made more severe by extremely high summer temperatures.  This report analyses to what extent the general public expect drought to continue and how concerned they are about adequate water supply.