Forecasting: the essential skills

Forecasting: the essential skills


This book is aimed at improving forecasting skills.  Chapters include the cost of forecasting errors; forecasting case studies; the performance of economic forecasting; the performance of exchange rate forecasting; an overview of forecasting techniques; risk and uncertainty in forecasting; forecasting with the wisdom of the masses; and discussion of the essential skills.

The forecasting case studies include new vehicle sales; retail sales; a leading indicator for household consumption growth; broad competition with supermarket categories; using scenarios to predict an economic shock; decadal prediction of rainfall; and the market share impact of opening a telecommunications market to competition.

The techniques described include judgement; expert panels; wisdom of the masses (extended description and case study on forecasting GDP); prediction markets; indicators; regression models; time series models; econometric models; discrete choice models; artificial neural networks; big data and predictive analytics; physical laws; and simulation models.  There is a section on choosing and using methods.

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Ebook forecastingskills0216.pdf

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