Forecasts of Consumer Spending and Economic Gro...

Forecasts of Consumer Spending and Economic Growth

Forecasts of Consumer Spending and Economic Growth

Display per page
Sort by

Not all Australians prefer lower interest rates.  Some prefer higher rates and some prefer no change.  This report is based on consumer survey tracking data and shows how interest rate preferences vary over time and by demographic.  It shows that interest rates have lost their power to influence aggregate consumer spending growth in this very low interest rate environment.  It also points to another way to boost consumer spending growth.


In his 2004 book “The Wisdom of Crowds”, James Surowiecki makes an interesting case that if you want to make a correct decision then large numbers of ordinary people can provide better advice than a small number of experts.  We have been researching this concept since 2005 and find that it is a potentially useful technique - but that applying it is rather more complex than suggested by Surowiecki.

We prefer the term "the wisdom of the masses" rather than crowds because the latter does not suggest sufficient diversity.

Consumer expectations have been found to be valuable for forecasting and predicting behaviour.

The 2018 survey provides bad news for the incimbent coalition federal government and indicates higher expectations about bad environmental outcomes.


House prices are an important economic variable.  They are a major component of household wealth, a significant driver of consumer spending, and a hurdle for prospective first home buyers.  This report is based on a unique leading indicator of Australian house price inflation.


New vehicle sales forecast for 2019 and 2020.  Is the perfect storm of 2018 over?


Official economic forecasts for Australia have only recently been revised downwards, despite the signs of a significant slowdown which started emerging from mid-2018.  The outlook is for a challenging economic environment with only a slight improvement likely, as at May 2019.


The drivers of consumer spending in Australia are identified and quantified.  The outlook for 2018, along with some scenarios, are included in this report.


Australia's business sentiment collapsed in 2019 and so did new vehicle sales.  After being bullish, the Reserve Bank has reduced its forecasts slightly - but are they still too optimistic?  This report sifts through the evidence and concludes their is little to be optimistic about, although there are still opportunities. 


Retail sales growth scenarios for the next 18 months.  Identification and analysis of the key economic drivers, the impact of the imminent federal election, consumer spending sentiment, opportunity and threat.


As 2018 progressed, new vehicle sales slumped. Is this the start of Peak Car or is it a perfect storm? Our report analyses the causes of the slump.


Identifies the key drivers of spending on food (total of supermarkets, specialy food, and liquor).  Provides scenarios for growth in the year ahead.