Forecasts of Consumer Spending and Economic Gro...

Forecasts of Consumer Spending and Economic Growth

Forecasts of Consumer Spending and Economic Growth

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Not all Australians prefer lower interest rates.  Some prefer higher rates and some prefer no change.  This report is based on consumer survey tracking data and shows how interest rate preferences vary over time and by demographic.  It shows that interest rates have lost their power to influence aggregate consumer spending growth in this very low interest rate environment.  It also points to another way to boost consumer spending growth.


In his 2004 book “The Wisdom of Crowds”, James Surowiecki makes an interesting case that if you want to make a correct decision then large numbers of ordinary people can provide better advice than a small number of experts.  We have been researching this concept since 2005 and find that it is a potentially useful technique - but that applying it is rather more complex than suggested by Surowiecki.

We prefer the term "the wisdom of the masses" rather than crowds because the latter does not suggest sufficient diversity.


Forecasts of Australian retail sales growth over the next two years.  Based on our econometric model and includes a short-term leading indicator model.  Includes analysis of the economic drivers.


House prices are an important economic variable.  They are a major component of household wealth, a significant driver of consumer spending, and a hurdle for prospective first home buyers.  This report is based on a unique leading indicator of Australian house price inflation.


Australia in 2017 contains forecasts, trends, and analysis essential to planning.  Australia enters 2017 with a brighter outlook than had been expected in mid-2016.  The sustainability of this prospect is doubtful.  This report contains unique consumer tracking survey data which provides early warning of change.  Consumer spending growth opportunities are identified.


New vehicle sales forecast for 2017 and 2018.  Longer term forecast to 2025 and the question of peak car is explored.  Automotive trends include the outlook for luxury new vehicle sales, prospects for electric vehicles, and analysis of the drivers of Australia's road toll.