Forecasting

Forecasting

Two books, aiming to improve forecasting accuracy, are available.

Economic forecasting with the Wisdom of the Masses is a summary of a more detailed book which will be available in February 2017.  It shows that conventional economic forecasting cannot predict turning points, but that forecasts derived from surveys of the general public can.  Leading indicators for household consumption spending, real GDP growth, house prices, the household saving ratio, and variations in interest rate sensitivity are described.  These are based on research conducted in Australia 

 

Forecasting: the essential skills is aimed at improving forecasting skills.  Chapters include the costs of forecasting errors; seven forecasting case studies; an evaluation of the performance of economic forecasting; an evaluation of the performance of exchange rate forecasting; an overview of forecasting techniques; risk and ncertainty in forecasting; an extended description of forecasting with the wisdom of the masses (including a case study) and the essential forecasting skills.  The author, Charles J Nelson is a statistician who has over 40 years of forecasting experience spanning a range of fields.


Display per page
Sort by

This book aims to improve the accuracy of forecasting. The book is about forecasting skills in two senses: Forecasting skill is a measure of the extent to which forecasts are more accurate than those produced by naive methods such as trend extrapolation. The book aims to improve skill in this sense. There is a range of skills needed by the individual or team making forecasts and the book identifies these skills through evaluation of forecasting performance in several fields and through case studies. The skills span a wide range including knowledge, experience, and ways of thinking.

Published in February 2016, the book has over 120 pages and 40,000 words.

$30.00

Provides evidence that conventional economic forecasting can't predict turning points but that predictions based on the analysis of surveys of the general public can.

$50.00